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How to Map an Adoption Curve


By Jack Reader

Lessons Learned
The L-shape of early adoption (non including innovators, see above) market revenue is common.  In fact, the L-shaped early market pattern for internet protocol networking in the 90’s was very similar, albeit with different a customer and segment mix, to the L-shape RFID early market opportunity.

The other learning is that new technology takes longer to spread than gurus and ambitious technology suppliers wish to be true – no matter what the driving forces may be.  The reverse, however, is also true in that incumbent technologies live on for many decades past their apparent expiration date.